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Welcome to the weekly Handicappers' blog where we comment on all the big events in the world of handicapping, including reviews of the big races, eyecatching performances and the most exciting finishes- making this an invaluable guide to what is hot in racing at the moment.
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9th March 2010- Cheltenham Spotlight
The National Hunt festival is almost upon us, and so this week's bumper edition of the BHA Handicappers' Blog features a special "Cheltenham Preview" in which we look through the official ratings of all the leading contenders for the major races.
Head of Handicapping Phil Smith runs the rule over the Gold Cup field in his blog, while David Dickinson, John de Moraville and Martin Greenwood weigh in with expert opinions on the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Triumph Hurdle and World Hurdle.
Flat aficionados, meanwhile, are advised to scroll down for the latest dispatches about goings on in the U.A.E. as their big meeting looms at the end of the month.
Blog editor Neil Young
...2010 CHELTENHAM SPECIAL...
Gold Cup
Courtesy of Head of Handicapping Phil Smith's blog
"Kauto Star attempting to win his third Gold Cup in the face off with Denman is just so exciting. It is not by any means a two horse race. I have Imperial Commander on a rating of 174 and that would be high enough to have given Best Mate a run for his money in each of his three Gold Cup wins.
As a result of his rout of the opposition in the King George I now have Kauto Star on 193. I never thought I would ever use a rating of 180+ never mind anything in the 190’s but the three superstars from Somerset have all put up at least two performances at 180+ in their careers.
What can go wrong with Kauto Star then? If they both run to their best and of course it is a big IF then Kauto Star should win by around 11 lengths. That is around 2.5 seconds in time. When you see it written down like that, his supremacy doesn’t look nearly so pronounced. A horse can lose 2.5 seconds with an error at any fence.
Whatever the result if all of the top horses run anywhere near their best form we are in for a treat".
- Phil Smith
Champion Hurdle
Only a glance is needed at the betting to establish that this year’s Champion Hurdle has a decidedly open look.
It is not that it lacks quality (there are likely to be at least half a dozen 160 plus horses in the race) but it lacks an outstanding star as things stand.
The form of last year’s Champion Hurdle has been downgraded this term and Celestial Halo’s Wincanton handicap win off 165 sees him now joint top of the ratings, with a current official BHA figure of 168 (he actually reached 170 last November).
Punjabi looked to be coming back to form and a repeat cannot be ruled despite his rating dropping to 164 (from a peak of 169 following last year's Champion Hurdle triumph).
Solwhit now appears under a cloud but he is also on 168 following his Leopardstown win in January, a rating Zaynar earned at Ascot before getting stuck in the Kelso mud.
Go Native is on for a big bonus after wins at Newcastle and Kempton, and one thing we did learn at Gosforth Park was that he has the foot to outkick them all in a tactical race - but his narrow defeat of recent flat scorer Starluck (161) leaves him on 164.
Also on 164 is last year’s Supreme Novice runner up Medermit, who has twice seen the rear of Khyber Kim (165) this season. Ironically an out and out gallop would probably favour Go Native’s stable companion Donnas Palm who has improved all winter and is no forlorn hope from his current rating of 162 - only one pound behind the rather more ballyhooed Binocular, who we assess at 163 (that's 6lb lower than his peak rating of 169, which he was rated throughout 2009).
Finally a word for Voler la Vedette should the possible absences of the likes of Binocular and Solwhit cause a change of heart. Her rating of 161 and a seven-pound mares' allowance would put her right in the mix.
- David Dickinson
Champion Chase
If back at his awesome best - and last month's Game Spirit Chase win strongly suggests that he is - Master Minded will be hard to beat.
Winner of the Cheltenham speed test for the past two years, Master Minded is the top-rated two-miler on a current official BHA mark of 178 and had so much in hand on his Newbury comeback that he could have well been rated higher.
The seven-year-old clocked a mind-boggling 186 when blitzing previous Queen Mother winner Voy Por Ustedes two years ago by 19 lengths and his fans will be willing him to replicate that show-stopping performance. Chief obstacles, fences apart, to Master Minded's historic hat-trick bid are his rejuvenated stable-mate Twist Magic (173) and the excitingly progressive Kalahari King (166).
Twist Magic, runaway winner this winter of the Grade 1 Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler Chases, proved a massive let-down in the past two renewals of next Wednesday's showpiece. However, he is on much better terms with himself these days and would have gone close to victory in the 2007 Arkle but for falling two out.
Kalahari King, inched out by Forpadydeplasterer (158) in last year's Arkle, has been brought along patiently by Ferdy Murphy with a view to peaking on Champion Chase day. There was so much to like about his decisive win under top-weight in a valuable Doncaster handicap last month after a 287-day absence that it would be no surprise if he leaves his current mark behind.
Big Zeb (165), a major disappointment in the Tingle Creek, has since confirmed his well-being by trotting-up at Punchestown. Injury-plagued Well Chief (161), a gallant second to Master Minded last year, has reached the veteran stage now and will do exceptionally well to get as close this time.
- John de Moraville
Triumph Hurdle
With Escort’men (149), Sang Bleu (144) and Mille Chief (136) all either bypassing the race or injured, the home defence looks a bit thin this year, particularly as the ex-French Sway (141) is not a novice and therefore not qualified.
Recent Gallic import Soldatino is top of the pile with an official BHA rating of 148 after his Kempton win. Other possible home-trained contenders would be headed by Me Voici (145), followed at a respectful distance by Westlin' Winds (136) and Advisor (135).
This is a race in which the Irish have struggled during recent years but Carlito Brigante (147), Alaivan (146), Secant Star (not yet qualified for a rating but worth around a 140 from his win at Gowran Park) and Pittoni (139) all look to be serious players this year in a less than vintage renewal.
One late-comer could yet be Notus de la Tour (134), who's a leading ante-post fancy for the Fred Winter.
- David Dickinson
World Hurdle
The picture hasn’t exactly changed much recently regarding Big Buck’s attempt to win a second World Hurdle. With a BHA mark of 174, he's a full half-stone ahead of Karabak (167), his nearest rival on ratings - and also his closest pursuer when the pair met at Newbury last time.
While Karabak, who has only had six hurdle starts in his life, may have further improvement in him, it's difficult to see how he can turn the tables in an incident-free contest.
Alan King's charge is in turn is rated seven pounds superior to Fair Along, Sentry Duty and Tidal Bay, all rated 160, with Time For Rupert next best on 159.
- Martin Greenwood
WRESTLING WITH THE TRUTH
It’s that time of the year again: the annual "Irish Trainers versus British Handicappers" spat, writes Martin Greenwood.
This time, representing the Green corner we have Willie "I can’t understand it" Mullins and Gordon "It’s a joke" Elliott, while in the Red, White and Blue corner we have hurdle handicappers David "above the level of the Irish" Dickinson and Martin "too high" Greenwood.
First onto the (Racing Post-sponsored) canvas is Mr Mullins, who can simply not understand the hurdle mark given to Coral Cup entry J’Y Vole according to his article in Sunday’s edition. Perhaps I can explain...
Firstly: the level of the form used by the domestic handicappers is higher than the Irish level, a situation that has been well chronicled over recent years.
Secondly: UK domestic handicappers can and will use steeplechase form when making their decision about hurdle marks (and vice versa), something that isn’t done across the Irish Sea.
To compare J’Y Vole’s Irish hurdle marks is therefore irrelevant, because the HRI handicappers haven’t taken into account the big improvement J’Y Vole showed when winning the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park in February.
Let’s also not forget, J’Y Vole can take advantage of the much lower rating by racing over hurdles in Ireland should connections so wish. The choice does exist.
After a successful "tag", Mr Elliott now appears in the ring to disagree with another Coral Cup entry. Comparing Chicago Grey’s domestic rating of 151 to the Irish equivalent of 141 is apparently "a joke" he laments in Monday’s edition of the Post.
Again, Mr Elliott seems to think that the HRI and BHA levels are comparable, despite the fact that the discrepancy between the two has existed for a number of years. Given Mr Elliott’s healthy strike rate with handicap hurdlers in the UK, you think he would be used to it by now.
Our rating of Chicago Grey, based on his defeat of Mourad at Thurles last time out, is 2lb higher than that of the Racing Post; the Irish rating is 8 lb lower.
Finally, having received a phone call regarding Chicago Grey from Mr Elliott while I was attending Doncaster last Friday, he then proceeded to tell me how unhappy he was with my decision to drop another of his horses, Meath All Star, 5 lbs (due to the fact the race he won at Ffos Las not working out well), which meant his horse was unlikely to make the cut in his Cheltenham engagement - unless he can win and invoke a 5 lb penalty in the meantime. Trainers... don’t ya just love ‘em!
...END OF CHELTENHAM SPECIAL...
PLUGGING NICHOLLS
After offending one racing personality who’d been critical of one of my colleagues’ handicapping in a recent blog (see 23rd Feb, an issue we have hopefully now cleared up), I’ll try to balance things up a little by being positive this week - highlighting the success of another racing personality who I’ve offended with my own handicapping in the past, writes Stephen Hindle.
Paul Nicholls won several of my races over the last few days, starting with Take The Breeze, who took his tally over the larger obstacles to four out of six in a small-field novice at Fontwell. Take The Breeze entered the race with easily the highest mark, and I chose not to move it, from 148, after his eleven-length win.
Not content with just training winners, Nicholls provided the first two home in the big handicap chase at Newbury, with Big Fella Thanks getting the better of the more-fancied Pasco.
Big Fella Thanks had given the impression he ideally needs further, so he did well to win, and afterwards he shot to the top of the market for the Grand National, a race in which he finished sixth last year but will be able to compete off 3 lb lower this time around. His 5-lb rise to 151 after this latest success won’t be a factor in the National, the weights having already come out.
Nicholls also won the bumper on the Newbury card with Al Ferof, who, like Big Fella Thanks, could run at Aintree as he is reportedly in line for the bumper there. Successful on two of his three starts now, Al Ferof would be well worth his place if he did line up as I had him performing to an above-average bumper rating of 125.
MEANWHILE AT MEYDAN...
As has been the case for much of the winter, the most noteworthy Flat performances of last week came in the very un-wintery surroundings of the United Arab Emirates, writes blog-editor Neil Young.
"Super Thursday" featured several trials for the end-of-Carnival meeting on the final Saturday of this month, and though these trials muddied more waters than they cleared, there were nevertheless several classy performances from British-trained runners.
The most notable of these was, perhaps surprisingly, posted in defeat: Godolphin's ex-French Allybar had won his two previous starts at the Carnival and lost little caste in finishing a one-length fourth to Japanese filly Red Desire in the 1m2f Al Maktoum Challenge (Round 3).
The four-year-old had a troubled passage and had to come from quite a long way back, notching a performance-figure of 115+ in the process. Saeed Bin Suroor's charge had previously run to 117+ over a slightly shorter distance when overcoming a tricky draw to beat Crowded House in Round 2 of the Al Maktoum Challenge, and we can probably expect him to break through the 120 "barrier" sooner rather than later.
His stablemate Cavalryman already has a 125 performance to his name, when third behind Sea the Stars in last October's Arc - and while he could only finish seventh in Thursday's race (running to 113 or so), we can probably expect considerably better next time out, especially back at 1m4f.
An extended mile and a half was the distance of Thursday's other big trial, the Dubai City of Gold, in which another Suroor/Godolphin representative Campanologist came fast and late along with Turkish raider Pan River to deny Derby fourth Golden Sword, the latter now in the care of South African maestro Mike De Kock.
Genuine and consistent, Campanologist has run to 115 on no fewer than five occasions according to the BHA handicappers, most recently when runner-up to Mawatheeq in last September's Cumberland Lodge Stakes at Ascot. I rate his most recent win at 113+, which suggests he has retained all his ability and may well be still progressing at the age of five - with a belated first Group 1 win a distinct possibility at some stage over the coming months.
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