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Head of Handicapping's Blog
Welcome to Phil Smith's Blog. I am Head of Handicapping at the British Horseracing Authority and I will be updating this page every so often with my thoughts on key issues in the handicapping world.
You can also check out the weekly handicappers blog for all the latest updates from the team.
PRE-CHELTENHAM THOUGHTS
9th March 2010
As we approach the Cheltenham Festival. It is difficult to decide which of the “big” races I am looking forward to most. Is it the Champion Hurdle which looks really open this year? Is it the Ryanair which appears to be improving as a competitive contest every year? Is it the World Hurdle with the Champion Big Buck’s taking on a rejuvenated Tidal Bay and former Gold Cup winner (and still a Grand National entry) War of Attrition? Or is it the Champion Chase with Master Minded apparently back somewhere near his best faced opposed by Twist Magic, Kalahari King and Big Zeb?
They are all mouth watering prospects but for me Kauto Star attempting to win his third Gold Cup in the face off with Denman is just sooo exciting. It is not by any means a two horse race. I have Imperial Commander on a rating of 174 and that would be high enough to have given Best Mate a run for his money in each of his three Gold Cup wins.
As a result of his rout of the opposition in the King George I now have Kauto Star on 193. I never thought I would ever use a rating of 180+ never mind anything in the 190’s but the three superstars from Somerset have all put up at least two performances at 180+ in their careers.
What can go wrong with Kauto Star then? If they both run to their best and of course it is a big IF then Kauto Star should win by around 11 lengths. That is around 2.5 seconds in time. When you see it written down like that, his supremacy doesn’t look nearly so pronounced. A horse can lose 2.5 seconds with an error at any fence.
Whatever the result if all of the top horses run anywhere near their best form we are in for a treat.
Inevitably the production of the Cheltenham handicaps last week has brought the usual complaints from across the Irish Sea that we are not fair to their horses. Let us look at the facts. Over the last 5 seasons, Irish horses have won 16 Festival handicaps from 217 runners. This gives them a strike rate of 7.4%. During the same period British trained horses have won 34 handicaps from 912 runners at a strike rate of 3.7%.
The reality is that the Irish have won at a rate of double the British trained horses. Methinks they do protest too much especially as in the same period British trained horses have won 1 handicap at the Punchestown Festival from 83 runners.
Not all of the Irish runners this year are running from ratings that are higher than they have in Ireland. We have a policy in Britain of dropping older horses who are not the force they were at a faster rate than is the case in Ireland. As a result 17 Irish trained horses have been assessed for the Festival handicaps off a lower rating than they currently have in Ireland.
In the rush to grab a provocative headline, neither the Racing Post journalists nor the Irish trainers have had the time to research who they are yet.
We also usually get criticised for our Cheltenham handicaps by Northern trainers. Sure enough this week Ferdy Murphy in the press claimed that Northern horses are assessed 5lbs. too high by us.
Again I looked back at the results at Cheltenham over recent years. From 2006 onwards, Northern trained horses have won 7 handicaps at the Festival from 108 runners at a strike rate of 6.5%. Not as high as the Irish, I agree but certainly way above the national average of 3.7%. Still never let the facts get in the way of a good headline.
Interestingly the seven Northern trained winners included four trained by Ferdy Murphy so we obviously didn’t have them 5lbs. too high. You’re Special won by 3.5 lengths, Joes Edge won by a short head, L’Antartique won by 2 lengths and Naiad Du Misselot won by a nose. We were very proud of the closeness of those finishes. If they had carried 5lbs. less we would not have been doing a very good job.
Astonishingly only last week Mr Murphy contacted Martin Greenwood one of my Senior Handicappers and told him he had one of his horses, King of Confusion 5lbs. too low, not too high. Confused yes we were too at first, until we realised it was because King of Confusion would have needed to be 5lbs. higher to get a run at the Cheltenham Festival!
JOHN SMITH's GRAND NATIONAL
24th February 2010
Last Tuesday I announced the John Smith’s Grand National weights at a lunch in London. It is the most exciting yet most stressful day of the year for me as hundreds of people, including trainers, owners, jockeys, the press, the sponsors and everyone at Aintree get first go at scrutinising my work.
Overall most people were very kind and complimentary about the shape of this year’s race but inevitably there was some criticism as not everyone understands how I set about the job. This account will be about the developing methodology I have used to try to create increasingly competitive renewals of the greatest horse race in the world.
I have included some statistical tables which show how the race has changed over the years and I will start off with 1999 which was my first year as the Grand National Handicapper.
At weights lunch
|
| 1999
| 2000
| 2001
| 2002
| 2003
| 2004
| 2005
| 2006
| 2007
| 2008
| 2009
| 2010
|
| Horses
| 95
| 99
| 126
| 139
| 148
| 117
| 152
| 144
| 117
| 149
| 120
| 111
|
| 11st 0lbs+
| 6
| 24
| 7
| 9
| 18
| 23
| 28
| 19
| 25
| 26
| 13
| 30
|
| 10st 0lbs+
| 23
| 42
| 32
| 24
| 49
| 43
| 64
| 66
| 62
| 79
| 48
| 67
|
| In Handicap
| 29
| 66
| 39
| 33
| 67
| 66
| 92
| 85
| 87
| 105
| 61
| 97
|
| % In Handicap
| 31%
| 67%
| 31%
| 24%
| 45%
| 56%
| 61%
| 59%
| 74%
| 70%
| 51%
| 87%
|
| Out of Handicap
| 66
| 33
| 87
| 106
| 81
| 51
| 60
| 59
| 30
| 44
| 59
| 14
|
As you can see there were 95 entries in 1999. The top weight on weights lunch day was Teeton Mill who had just won the King George at Kempton a pound clear of Sunny Bay who had been second to Earth Summit in the Grand National carrying 12stone the previous year.
I was pleased with those two but where were the other good horses? There were only 4 other horses due to carry 11stone or more and only 29 in the handicap. The eventual winner Bobbyjo was down to carry 9 stone and was among 66 horses out of the handicap.
On the day of the race there wasn’t even a full field of 40 as there were only 32 runners on the day with more than half of the field (18) out of the handicap. The lowest rated horse to run was Back Bar who at number 32 in the field was a whopping 32lbs. out of the handicap.
It was just not a competitive contest and I knew the race needed some serious surgery. Luckily I was not alone and in May 1999 I met with Paul Greeves my boss at the old BHB, David Oldrey who was Chairman of the Race Planning Committee and Charles Barnett who at that time was Chief Executive of Aintree who vowed to massively increase the prize money. They gave me a number of goals.
I was given 3 years to attract more of the better horses to run in the race and to ensure a full field of 40 runners every year. I was to make sure no horses were running from out of the handicap, reintroduce the Aintree Factor into the race and improve the overall quality of the field. Pretty easy then!
My view was that all of those targets were mutually inclusive but how to start? I had no idea and just handicapped the 2000 and 2001 editions the way I had done in 1999. However events conspired to help me a little. The highest rated horse that was entered in 2000 was Young Kenny on 155.
This had the effect of ensuring that everything down to 141 (24 horses) was due to carry 11st.+ and made it a more competitive race. There were 66 horses in the handicap on weights day and on the big day itself only 7 horses ran from out of the handicap. There was also a full field of 40 runners.
The winner Papillon carried 10st.12lbs. which was the highest weight a winner had carried for 12 years. Suddenly people thought that the better horses had a chance to win the race.
As a result in 2001 See More Business and Florida Pearl were among a record entry of 126 horses (Aintree and the sponsors Martell had increased the prize money enormously) entered in the race and they had finished first and second in a Gold Cup. Unfortunately the knock on effect was that only 7 horses were due to carry 11st.+ and only 39 were in the handicap on weights day. By the time of the race, none of the top six in the weights turned up and there were still 14 horses that ran from out of the handicap.
The race itself was one of the more chaotic ones. It was Red Marauder’s year and there were only 4 finishers. I was to go into Grand National history as the handicapper with the worst ever finish, a distance, a distance and a distance. I had to come up with something as the only bright spot was that at least the minimum rating needed to get into the race had gone up to 123.
There was an obsession amongst trainers with avoiding carrying top weight in the Grand National as no top weight had won for over 25 years. It was blindingly obvious, reduce the top weight. Helped and encouraged by Stuart Middleton in the Racing Department I brought it down to 11st.12lbs.
For the first time I began applying my take on the Aintree factor. Top weights had a good record of giving the weight in my big 3 mile handicap chases but not in the Grand National, so I decided that it must be correspondingly more difficult to do so over 4.5miles at Aintree. I began compressing the horses at the top of the handicap.
In 2002 there was a record entry of 139 but only 9 horses were due to carry 11st.+ and only 24% were in the handicap. However on race day only 9 horses ran from out of the handicap, there was another full field and you needed your horse to be rated 130 in order to get a run. It was slow progress.
2003 brought a record entry of 148 horses with 67 assessed at more than 10st. on weights day in February. Florida Pearl, Marlborough, Cyfor Malta were class animals entered in the race and I began to compress the top weights a little more. On the day of the race only 4 horses ran from out of the handicap and two horses carrying 11st.+ were in the first four with What’s up Boys in my eyes a slightly unlucky loser.
By 2005 a record 152 horses entered the race now sponsored by John Smith’s and thus worth a small fortune to the winner. I managed to assess 92 horses as being in the handicap on weights day with a record 28 at 11st.+. On the day of the race, heaven! The whole field was in the handicap and a horse carrying 11st.+ (Hedgehunter) won for the first time since 1988.
I began to increase my use of the Aintree factor, extending it to increasing the weight given to horses that had previously shown good form over the National fences but which were unlikely to get a run off their normal rating. Many horses appear able to go back to the track and perform way above their normal level on park courses. Amberleigh House had proven that to me in 2004. I now felt they deserved another chance especially if they had supported Aintree’s other races. It was also fun when trainers actually thanked me for putting their horse up.
|
| 2004
| 2005
| 2006
| 2007
| 2008
| 2009
| 2010
|
| 155-159
| 5
| 5
| 4
| 5
| 8
| 16
| 6
|
| 150-154
| 9
| 10
| 8
| 12
| 12
| 16
| 17
|
| 145-149
| 11
| 16
| 8
| 9
| 10
| 15
| 23
|
| 140-144
| 13
| 13
| 25
| 20
| 27
| 22
| 27
|
| 135-139
| 17
| 28
| 28
| 26
| 31
| 27
| 21
|
| 130-134
| 22
| 29
| 25
| 26
| 34
| 12
| 8
|
| 125-129
| 18
| 21
| 19
| 6
| 11
| 7
| 5
|
| 120-124
| 11
| 9
| 12
| 5
| 10
| 5
| 3
|
| 115-119
| 7
| 12
| 9
| 5
| 5
| 0
| 1
|
| 110-114
| 4
| 9
| 6
| 3
| 1
| 0
| 0
|
| Total
| 117
| 152
| 144
| 117
| 149
| 120
| 111
|
| Median
| 130
| 134
| 135
| 137
| 137
| 142
| 143
|
As you can see if you look at the statistics since 2004, the number of horses entered that are rated at 140+ has increased year on year leading to a record 73 this year. Last year I suggested lowering the top weight to 11st.10lbs. This would have been unthinkable 10 years ago but nowadays there has not been a horse running from out of the handicap for 5 years, although there might have been had Denman stood his ground last year.
This year there has been a reduction in the number of entries but they are exclusively at the bottom end of the ability range. They had no hope of getting a run. In 2009 another horse managed to lump 11st. to victory so that this year there are 30 horses that have been encouraged to enter with 11st+ on their backs compared with 6 in 1999.
I feel I have nearly achieved all of my aims from 1999. Only one remains. We now have very good horses entering the race and massive strength in depth as well as a full field all in the handicap. However it remains an ambition to entice a Denman or a Kauto Star or an Imperial Commander to run. I thought we might have got there a couple of years ago with Exotic Dancer but he ran elsewhere at the meeting. Come on Harry 11st.10lbs. with a compressed rating, that has to get you excited for 2011 with the big horse Denman doesn’t it?
2009 WORLD THOROUGBRED RACEHORSE RANKINGS
28th January 2010
A great deal has been written over the last few weeks about the 2009 WTRR which assessed Sea The Stars at 136, not all of it totally objective. However many observers and racing enthusiasts have commented that this figure underestimates the ability of the horse and they may be correct.
Unfortunately Handicappers can only assess what the horse has done, NOT what it might be capable of achieving and it is difficult to see on the horse’s results how he could be higher. Most people agree that his best performance was in the Irish Champion Stakes where he beat Fame and Glory (129) by an easy 2.5 lengths and Mastercraftsman (125) by 5 lengths.
I attended the International Handicappers Conference in Hong Kong in December and all 14 delegates agreed that Mastercraftsman should be 125 and that the 2.5 lengths to Fame And Glory should be called 4 pounds as we normally would over that distance making him 129. It was then a question of what we should call the easy 2.5 lengths by which Sea The Stars beat Fame And Glory. In normal circumstances this would be 4 pounds but because of the ease of victory we called it 7 pounds making Sea The Stars 136.
Subsequently we have been accused of having Fame And Glory and Mastercraftsman too high and Sea The Stars too low. This is an interesting theory in that we called the 2.5 lengths to be worth 7 pounds over 1mile 2 furlongs. This gave Sea The Stars credit for a probable 4 length victory. If we expanded the differential any further we would have had to call it 5 lengths or even 6 lengths which would have put the committee into fantasy land and critics would have said our ratings lacked credibility.
There is often very vigorous and sometimes heated debate amongst the International Handicappers in our Hong Kong Conference when we are discussing each others horses and you have to put up a strong case to achieve the rating you want for your domestic horses. On Sea The Stars there was no disagreement, no need for a vote, no doubts about what he had achieved at his best. All 14 members of the committee were unanimous, a very unusual event. The fact that this figure placed him behind great horses of the past was not relevant, 136 was what he achieved at his best and we couldn’t get him any higher.
Part of the problem was that he never met another great horse, by that I mean another horse rated 130+. When Dancing Brave won his Prix De L’Arc de Triomphe there were 5 horses rated at 130+ running in the race. When Dancing Brave beat them out of sight he was always more likely to achieve a higher rating than Sea The Stars could have done. It was not the horse’s fault it was the lack of outstanding opposition which made it impossible to assess him any higher than we did, especially when he never beat that opposition by very far.
I hope this account helps to explain and put into context the difficulties when assessing top horses and comparing them year on year. To score highly they either have to win by wide margins or beat stellar opponents or both. Is there anybody out there who believes that Sea The Stars did that?
Some popular misconceptions
My Handicapping team is often accused of discriminating against certain groups of horses and trainers so that they cannot win handicaps. Although we regularly deny this, certain theories often gather pace and become folklore. I thought it might be interesting to look at the winners of jump handicaps in Britain over the last week and try to debunk some of the more popular myths that we hear from trainers.
"If you go up for being placed you can’t possibly win next time". - Oiseau De Nuit up 6lbs. for finishing 2nd last time, Have You Seen Me up 4lbs for finishing 3rd at Plumpton, Rince Donn up 4lbs. for finishing 2nd last time and Qozak up 2lbs. for finishing 4th last time might have helped to quieten that one for a while.
"Once your horse gets to 10 years of age it won’t win another handicap" - Zanzibar Boy, Kinkeel, Wizard of Edge and The Sawyer amongst others make a healthy defence on ageism over the last week.
"No horse can ever run up a sequence under the current handicap system". - Noun De La Thinte (5 on the bounce), Rapid Increase (2 consecutive wins) Senor Shane (3 on the bounce) have managed to achieve consecutive victories in jump handicaps.
"The Novices are going in too high and can’t win off the marks they are given". - Gold Award, Shadrack, and Young Buddy are just three of the Novices that have overcome the marks my team have given them in handicaps against non Novices.
"You go up quickly enough but you never come down that quickly". - Dan Buoy won this week having dropped 22 lbs. in four months, Our Vic won a top handicap having come down 19lbs. in the last year despite winning only a few months ago.
"Horses get put up for running over a different obstacle but never come down for running poorly over a different obstacle". - Mr Floppy was dropped over fences for running moderately over hurdles and won over fences in a handicap chase this week.
"Once you get put up by a double figure amount you never win again". - It’s Teescomponents overcame a 16lbs. rise for an earlier win at Newcastle to win at the same venue this week.
"The rule allowing you to run in a handicap after two placed runs never leads to a win in a handicap". - The Rainbow Hunter and Volador have all been well placed by their trainers to win handicaps after qualifying by being placed on their first two runs in Novice races.
"It’s the kiss of death if you end up with top weight in a handicap" – Ballabriggs, and Too Forward both carried 11st. 12lbs. to victory on heavy ground last week.
"If you run well in a top race you are hammered by the Handicapper" – Mamlook was second in the Elite Hurdle earlier this season but won a top handicap at Ascot on Saturday off a 6lbs. lower mark.
"You should never go up in the weights for falling" – Richard’s Sundance was put up 5lbs. for falling two runs ago, another 7lbs. for winning a Beginners’ Chase at Exeter and as a Novice, carried top weight to win at Wincanton on Saturday.
This week there have been wins by northern trainers, lady trainers, novice horses, older horses, champion trainers, trainers with big strings, trainers with small strings, sons of champion trainers, horses that have gone up and horses that have been dropped but you can be sure that some people will think that they are discriminated against.
NOVICE CHASERS AND NEWBURY
8th December 2009
Following this year’s memorable Hennessy Meeting, there has been widespread discussion regarding the disappointing field sizes in the meeting’s Novice Chases and, in particular, that one reason for this is that trainers fear what will happen to their horses’ handicap marks if they run too close to or beat a potential superstar such as Punchestowns.
As in previous years when we have researched these claims, the facts show that any such fears are without foundation. This is illustrated by explaining what my handicapping team did to the handicap ratings of each of the runners in the three such races staged at Newbury at the weekend.
The Worcester Novices’ Chase
Michel Le Bon won by a distance rated 140 as a hurdler but has not been given a handicap mark as it is too difficult a race to rate.
Bench Warrent was rated 132 and is still rated 132.
Pettifour went into the race as a 155 hurdler with one chase win so that would have been his chase rating. I have dropped him 8lb to 147.
Cannington Brook is not qualified for a rating.
The Rooney/Hall Beginners’ Chase
Riverside Theatre went into the race as a 145 hurdler and would now be rated 2lb higher at 147 as a chaser.
Calusa Crystal went into the race as a 130 hurdler and would now be rated 125 as a chaser.
Al Co went into the race as a 130 hurdler and would now be rated 125 as a chaser.
Gibbongrove is not qualified for a rating.
Lady An Co was a 136 rated chaser from France and is now 133 in Britain as a chaser.
Captain Americo was a 125 rated chaser and as he fell he is still rated at 125.
The Berkshire Novices’ Chase
Punchestowns went into the race as a 171 hurdler and has not been given a chase rating as he performed well below that in his first chase.
Martys Mission went into the race as a 130 chaser. He gave Punchestowns 7lbs and was beaten 7 lengths by him. My colleague raised him by 5lbs to 135 as he assessed him NOT through Punchestowns but, as we always do, through the horses he beat and through a reassessment of his previous form.
He had been 133 earlier in the season but was dropped to 130 after a couple of disappointing runs but could be on 135 on his win at Stratford in May when he beat Font who has subsequently run well. Incidentally, the owner has already contacted us and is happy that we have been fair with the horse’s rating.
Red Admiral went into the race as a 142 rated chaser and has been dropped 2lb to 140.
Dee Ee Williams went into the race as a 139 rated hurdler and, although we need more runs to assess him, on what he achieved at Newbury he would be on 137 as a chaser.
In summary, therefore, of the eleven beaten horses in these races, just one had its handicap rating raised.
Other events from recent days provide further evidence supporting our approach to the handicapping of novice chasers:
Sportingbet.com Handicap Chase
The winner Mount Oscar had won a Fontwell Novice Chase rated 125. As the second was rated 125 we raised Mount Oscar to 133. Yet, on his next start and having been raised 8lbs, this 10 year old novice won this competitive open handicap at Newbury in an exciting finish.
Free World
Occasionally, however, we do have to raise horses beaten in Novice Chases at top tracks and a recent example was Free World.
He was rated 107 but finished 3rd in an Ascot Novice Chase beaten 11 lengths by French Opera (138), but more importantly just under 3 lengths ahead of Approved Force who was on 115.
We raised Free World +8 to 115. At Leicester this week he won a Handicap Chase against older horses by a length. Our decision to put him up therefore produced a close finish rather than a 10 length runaway winner. In the meantime the winner of the Ascot Novice Chase went on to win a Cheltenham handicap on its next start, also against older horses.
There are hundreds of other examples that we could provide just like those from Newbury’s Hennessy meeting which show that, whilst novices are the most difficult horses to assess, our approach is resulting in a fair outcome for all. Indeed, throughout all of last season the success rates in handicaps of horses that run in a Novice Chase on their previous start was 10.4% compared to the norm for all horses of 10.1%.
To conclude, as a handicapping team we are constantly striving to produce the most competitive handicaps that we can and if the facts, which we are monitoring constantly, show that our methodology in this (or, indeed, any other area) is wrong, we will change our methodology. However, this is clearly not the case in relation to novice chasers and, moreover, it would be wrong to alter our approach to address misguided concerns based on myth.
Kauto and the Commander serve up a thriller
24th November 2009
The BHA Racing Department have done a wonderful job with the jump race programme over the last 10 years. Not a Saturday goes by in winter without another fascinating - and often thrilling - set of fixtures and each week just gets better for us racing fans. Yes, I may be a Handicapper, but like all of the Handicapping team I'm also a lover of racing.
The three-mile Betfair Chase is a relatively new race, being the result of close co-operation between the Haydock Park executive, the sponsor and the BHA Jump Panel*. In its few years it has already established itself as a Grade 1 race with the end of season ratings of the horses well above the parameters for such a contest.
Kauto Star and Imperial Commander drew 24 lengths in front of seriously good horses at Haydock but it was a difficult race to rate. Could I be sure that Kauto had run up to his best or had he run poorly, as Imperial Commander was rated 165 going into the race? The time was over 10 seconds faster than Shining Gale put up in a very competitive 0-145 handicap only half an hour later so it was clear that the Betfair Chase was a truly run race.
In circumstances like this I often use historical context as a way of assessing horses against the top chasers from the recent past. Exotic Dancer received 172 when he got within a length of Kauto Star in the race a few years ago when they were 18 lengths ahead of Beef Or Salmon. Imperial Commander’s run looked slightly better than that performance.
Eventually I settled on a performance figure of 174 for each horse. In a head bobbing finish we are increasingly giving both winner and runner up the same performance figure and you have to remember that Kauto Star was behind his opponent just before and just after the line. He only won because as an old pro he knew when to get his head down. They deserve to be given the same figure for Saturday.
This means that Imperial Commander is now two pounds higher than Exotic Dancer’s best ever rating - an exalted position. He is also now only one pound behind the best performance put up by Best Mate. The big question now is: can he replicate it, or even improve on it? For Kauto Star it was the 16th time in his last 18 outings that he has put up a performance figure of 170+. No jumper in modern times has been that consistent at the top level.
However I have kept Kauto Star’s official BHA rating on 186 - so if they were to compete in a handicap next time rather than the King George, Imperial Commander would be in receipt of 12lbs. Who would you back?
Interestingly the three Handicaps at Haydock on Saturday were all won by the top weight. There is a lot of rubbish written about the disadvantage of running with top weight and only last week a letter-writer to the Racing Post stated, “I don’t need to add that it is lighter weighted inferior animals that tend to win [handicaps]". Over Friday, Saturday and Sunday there were 33 jump handicaps with a total of 41 horses carrying top weight. The top weight won 12 of them at just under 30%. There were 330 runners in these races so the average chance of a horse winning was 10%.
A level stake of £10 on all of these 41 top weights would have resulted in a profit of... £823.33! Of course one weekend’s handicaps is not exactly a statistically valid sample so next week I will bring you the figures over a number of seasons. They will be a surprise for the famous husband of the top lady trainer in the North who regularly tells me, “Top weights can’t win, lad!”
On the subject of top weights Vic Venturi carried top weight to win the totesport.com Becher Chase over 3m2f at Aintree on Sunday. He was rated 148 here (145 in Ireland) and triumphed in a disappointingly small field for such a valuable race. From 24 entries how come only eight turned up on Sunday for such a good prize? Some trainers told the racecourse that they didn’t want to ruin their chance in the Grand National by running well in the Beecher Chase and going up in the ratings.
It is amazing that at a time when owners and trainers are complaining about prize money they are prepared to give up a chance of a big pot of money now for the possibility of something in five months time. The Becher chase is not a prep run for the National - it is a top race in its own right. Why someone would give up a one-in-eight chance of a big prize for a one-in-forty chance is beyond me.
As it happens it was a good race with all five of the remaining horses having a chance coming to the last fence. Interestingly the connections of two of the placed horses actually asked me to put them up to ensure they get a run in the Grand National. Indeed I will use the "Aintree factor" to do my best to give all five of the finishers an opportunity to run in April as they have shown themselves to be more than capable over the big fences.
When I do the weights in February there are always owners and trainers who ask me to ensure their horse gets a run. I will be saying to them you will have to get in the queue behind the horses that supported the Becher Chase and showed themselves worthy of the chance.
Phil Smith
* The BHA Jump Panel – a committee to which I am an advisor - has done so much to improve Jumping in Britain. All of the members are happy to put aside their sectional interests and make far sighted decisions in the interests of jumping as a whole.
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